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Sectors in Focus

Major Corporate Developments This Week

1. Kalpataru Projects International (KPIL) – Secured new orders worth approximately ₹2,225 crore, comprising ₹2,031 crore in power transmission and distribution projects across India and international markets, plus ₹194 crore through its Swedish subsidiary, Linjemontage. FY27 order inflows have crossed ₹20,000 crore, up more than 30% year-on-year.
2. Bharat Dynamics (BDL) – Signed a ₹1,307 crore contract with the Indian Navy for heavyweight torpedoes on October 15. The contract is scheduled for execution over 42 months.
3. IRCON International – Received an EPC order worth ₹862.46 crore from East Central Railway for track construction and associated works under the Son Nagar–Andal railway project. The scope includes track laying, linking, railway materials and infrastructure suitable for 32.5-tonne axle-load operations.
4. Bharat Electronics (BEL) – Secured additional orders worth ₹533 crore since its previous disclosure on September 17. The orders cover communication equipment, avionics, cybersecurity solutions, drones, jammers, software, upgrades, spares and services.
5. Adani Power – Received a Letter of Award from Uttarakhand Power Corporation for a 25-year power supply agreement covering 1,234 MW of net thermal power. The award remains subject to approval of the tariff by the Uttarakhand Electricity Regulatory Commission.
6. Vascon Engineers – Received a ₹198 crore construction contract from State Bank of India for the development of its SBILD facility, residential flats and associated facilities at Hinjewadi, Pune.
7. Saatvik Green Energy – Won a ₹100 crore order from MSEDCL to supply and install 5,000 off-grid solar water pumps across Maharashtra under the PM-KUSUM B scheme. The scope includes installation, commissioning, warranty and five years of maintenance, with execution within 60 days from the notice to proceed.
8. Mankind Pharma – Agreed to acquire a 70% stake in Belgium-based Armed Cell Therapeutics (ACTx) for €48 million, marking its entry into next-generation CAR-T cancer therapies. ACTx's development pipeline includes programmes targeting non-Hodgkin lymphoma and small-cell lung cancer.
9. Solar Industries India – Subsidiary Solar Explochem signed a share purchase agreement to acquire 100% of Sivasakthi Industrial Explosives for ₹115.02 crore. The proposed acquisition expands the group's presence in industrial explosives.
10. Adani Enterprises – Signed a non-binding MoU with US-based Jabil for a proposed 50:50 joint venture to manufacture and assemble AI and data-centre equipment in India. The planned platform covers AI racks, servers, networking, power and cooling systems. Financial terms have not been disclosed, and the venture remains at the MoU stage.
11. Premier Energies – Subsidiary Premier Battery Technologies entered into a strategic JV agreement with Germany's RCT Group to establish a 12 GWh battery energy storage system manufacturing facility. The first phase will have 6 GWh capacity and is expected to be established in FY28 at Seetharampur, Telangana.
12. Hyundai Motor India / Hyundai Motor Group – Hyundai Motor Group announced a US$15.5 billion investment commitment in India from 2026 through 2032. The group-wide plan covers manufacturing expansion, research and development, supplier localisation and future automotive technologies. The announced figure is for the overall group investment programme, not solely for listed Hyundai Motor India.
13. HCLTech – Entered a Global Premier Partnership with Anthropic to accelerate enterprise adoption of agentic AI. HCLTech plans to establish a dedicated Anthropic business unit and Centre of Excellence, while HCLSoftware will embed Claude and Claude Code into selected enterprise products. Financial terms were not disclosed.
14. Fairfax Financial / IDBI Bank – The government approved the proposed sale of a 60.72% stake in IDBI Bank to Fairfax Financial Holdings for approximately ₹52,878 crore. Fairfax has also outlined plans to bring its interests in Go Digit and IIFL Capital under IDBI Bank, subject to regulatory approvals and completion of the relevant transactions.
15. Persistent Systems – Plans to raise up to ₹8,000 crore through rupee-denominated bonds to refinance bridge financing used for its acquisition of Germany-based Nagarro. Persistent has secured approximately 94.04% of Nagarro's share capital and expects the acquisition to close after outstanding regulatory approvals.
16. BHEL – The board approved an estimated ₹500 crore capital investment for additional facilities to manufacture thermal and nuclear power sets at its HEEP-Haridwar unit.
17. Vikran Engineering – Subsidiary NOPL Solar Projects entered into a ₹2,941.19 crore term-loan facility agreement with IREDA to part-finance a 969 MWac/1,163 MWp solar photovoltaic project across 152 locations in Maharashtra. The project has an estimated total cost of ₹4,201.70 crore and is being developed under the Mukhyamantri Saur Krushi Vahini Yojana 2.0 scheme.
18. TD Power Systems – Completed a ₹600 crore qualified institutional placement (QIP) on October 12, issuing 77.41 lakh shares at ₹775 per share. Participating investors included Axis Mutual Fund, Canara Robeco, ICICI Prudential, Mirae Asset, Aditya Birla Sun Life, Societe Generale and Bandhan Mutual Fund.
19. Reliance Industries / Jio Platforms – Announced the upcoming Jio Platforms IPO of approximately ₹30,200 crore, comprising a fresh issue of 27 crore equity shares. The price band is ₹1,065–₹1,119 per share, with public subscription scheduled for October 21–23, 2026. This is a significant capital-markets development for Reliance's telecom and digital-services business.
20. Zydus Lifesciences – The US FDA completed an inspection of the company's Moraiya manufacturing facility in Ahmedabad, conducted from October 5–13, with five observations reported. These are inspection observations and do not, by themselves, establish that a warning letter or import ban has been issued.
21. Dr. Reddy's Laboratories – The US FDA concluded a pre-approval inspection at the company's FTO-9 facility in Visakhapatnam, conducted on October 8–9, with a Form 483 containing three observations. The company will need to address the observations through the regulatory process.
22. Rajesh Exports – SEBI upheld its interim restrictions on the company and promoter Rajesh Mehta, citing unresolved concerns over financial disclosures, subsidiary consolidation, cooperation with the investigation and alleged routing of company funds through personal accounts. The development remains material from a governance and regulatory-risk standpoint.

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Survivor's Feast: When the Weak Exit, the Strong Reprice

The biggest opportunity in a brutal industry downturn may lie in identifying who will still be standing when prices recover.

In investing, we often associate falling prices, declining margins and bankruptcies with deteriorating business fundamentals. When an industry enters a downturn, investors rush to cut exposure, earnings estimates collapse and valuations contract. The natural instinct is to avoid the entire sector until conditions improve.

But there is a different way to look at the same situation.

What if the downturn is not just destroying profitability, but also removing the competition that prevents the surviving companies from earning attractive returns?

This is the idea behind what we call the Survivor's Feast. When an industry experiences prolonged stress, the weakest players may be forced to shut down plants, sell businesses, merge with stronger competitors or file for insolvency. As capacity exits, supply begins to shrink. If demand stabilises or recovers while new capacity remains difficult to create, the balance of power shifts towards the survivors. Prices recover, margins expand and companies that were barely making money can suddenly generate exceptional profits.

The opportunity is not necessarily to find the company growing fastest during the downturn. It is to identify the business that has the cost advantage, balance-sheet strength or access to capital required to survive until the industry's economics change.

The survivor does not need to win the price war. It needs to outlast it.

The Feast Comes After the Famine

Most industry cycles follow a familiar sequence, although the duration and severity of each phase vary.

The famine begins when excess capacity, aggressive competition, falling demand or a funding freeze pushes prices below the level at which weaker producers can operate profitably. Initially, everyone suffers. Even efficient businesses may report falling margins because prices are determined by a market struggling to absorb excess supply.

The second phase is the exit. The weakest companies run out of cash, fail to service debt, sell their assets or shut down unprofitable operations. Some merge with stronger competitors. Others disappear entirely. This distinction matters because a temporary production cut does not have the same effect as permanently removing a factory from the industry.

The third phase begins when supply starts shrinking. With fewer competitors and less available capacity, industry utilisation improves. Customers who previously had several suppliers may have fewer alternatives. The survivors no longer need to compete as aggressively for every order, and pricing discipline can gradually return.

Finally comes the feast. Prices rise while the survivor's underlying cost base changes much more slowly. Operating margins expand, cash generation accelerates and the balance sheet begins recovering from the stress of the downturn.

The counterintuitive part is that the survivor's stock can begin recovering before the industry looks healthy again. The market may still be focused on falling earnings and visible bankruptcies, while the supply-side changes that will eventually improve profitability are already unfolding.

That creates a potentially attractive investment setup, but it is not an automatic buy signal. The investor must establish whether the survivor can genuinely endure the downturn and whether the capacity leaving the industry is likely to remain out of the market.

The Arithmetic: Why the Survivor Eats First

Consider a simplified industry in which two companies sell an identical product.

The market price is ₹100 per unit. The stronger producer has a cost of ₹90, leaving a margin of ₹10. The weaker producer has a cost of ₹105 and therefore loses ₹5 on every unit sold. As long as the weaker producer continues supplying the market to generate cash or cover part of its fixed costs, it contributes to excess supply and keeps prices under pressure.

Eventually, the weaker producer exits. Suppose the loss of capacity allows the market price to increase by 20%, from ₹100 to ₹120, while the stronger producer's cost remains at ₹90.

The survivor's margin now rises from ₹10 to ₹30 per unit.

A 20% increase in selling price has therefore tripled the survivor's per-unit margin, even without any improvement in its manufacturing process or cost structure. These are illustrative numbers, not actual company data, but they demonstrate the economic mechanism behind the Survivor's Feast.

The important insight is that the survivor benefits twice. It first gains from the removal of competing capacity and then benefits from the higher price that a tighter market can support. If customers previously served by the exited producer migrate to the survivor, the company may also experience volume growth and greater utilisation of its existing assets.

This is why profit growth can dramatically exceed revenue growth during the recovery phase.

The feast is a margin-expansion story first. Volume growth comes afterwards.

Who Survives? Lowest Cost Is Only Half the Answer

The obvious candidate for survival is the lowest-cost producer. A company with superior procurement, efficient operations, high asset utilisation and access to critical inputs can remain profitable at prices that force competitors to lose money. Scale, backward integration and operational discipline can all widen this cost advantage.

But the cheapest producer does not always win.

A prolonged downturn tests the balance sheet as much as the operating model. A business may have attractive unit economics but still fail if it carries excessive debt, faces near-term repayments or loses access to working capital. Conversely, a company with a slightly higher cost base may survive because it has a strong parent, a supportive shareholder, access to equity or the ability to borrow when competitors cannot.

The distinction is between being economically competitive and having the financial endurance to remain competitive.

IndiGo illustrates the importance of the first characteristic. Its standardised Airbus A320-family fleet, aircraft utilisation, large orders and sale-and-leaseback arrangements helped establish a structural cost advantage. That operating model mattered when Indian aviation experienced the exits of Kingfisher, Jet Airways and Go First. As weaker carriers disappeared, IndiGo was positioned to capture a greater share of the market.

Bharti Airtel illustrates the second characteristic. During the telecom price war triggered by Jio's entry in 2016, Airtel was not necessarily the industry's lowest-cost operator. Its advantage was the ability to fund the battle, raise capital, retain valuable customers and remain operational while financially weaker competitors were forced to exit or consolidate. The company survived long enough to participate in the subsequent improvement in industry pricing.

Bajaj Finance offers a related lesson from lending. For a lender, money is the raw material. When a funding crisis makes borrowing more expensive or inaccessible for weaker non-bank financial companies, access to relatively stable, competitively priced funding becomes a decisive advantage. Lenders that retain market access can continue disbursing loans while competitors pull back, potentially gaining customers and market share during the period of stress.

These examples point to a more complete framework for identifying survivors. The winner is often a combination of low cost, sound capital allocation and financial staying power. A cheap producer without liquidity may not survive; a well-funded company without competitive economics may continue losing money. The strongest survivors possess enough of both to endure the famine and benefit when the industry recovers.

Bharti Airtel: From a Price War to Pricing Power

India's telecom industry demonstrates how destructive competition can eventually create the conditions for a recovery.

When Jio entered the market in September 2016 with free voice and data offers, the economics of telecom changed dramatically. Incumbents faced intense pressure to match aggressive pricing while continuing to fund spectrum, network infrastructure and customer acquisition. Several operators exited or sold their businesses, while Vodafone and Idea merged to survive. Aircel and Reliance Communications entered insolvency proceedings, and the number of significant private operators declined sharply.

Airtel's survival was not guaranteed. Its average revenue per user, or ARPU, fell to around ₹100 in Q2 FY19, reflecting the severity of the competitive pressure. But the company continued investing in its network and raised capital through the downturn. As the industry consolidated, the competitive landscape became more concentrated, with high barriers to entry created by spectrum requirements, enormous network investment and the need to establish national coverage before generating meaningful returns.

The price war eventually gave way to a series of tariff increases. Major hikes followed in December 2019, November 2021 and July 2024. Airtel's ARPU subsequently increased to ₹257 in FY26, according to the presentation, while its operating margin expanded substantially over the same broad period.

The sequence is what matters. The exits did not automatically produce better economics overnight. They first changed the industry's structure, reducing the number of competitors capable of sustaining a prolonged price war. Once pricing began improving, the surviving operators could capture more revenue from their existing customer base and network investments.

Airtel's experience illustrates an important principle: an industry does not need a sudden surge in demand to recover its profitability if its supply-side structure becomes more favourable.

However, this feast is not immune to disruption. Government support for weaker operators, regulatory intervention, new entry or a renewed price war can delay the recovery or undermine its durability. Investors therefore need to monitor both the surviving companies and the industry structure that makes higher pricing possible.

Graphite Electrodes: A Feast That Did Not Last Forever

Graphite electrodes offer a particularly instructive example of a cyclical Survivor's Feast because they show both the extraordinary upside and the risks of investing in a supply-driven recovery.

These specialised products are used in electric-arc-furnace steelmaking. Producing high-quality ultra-high-power electrodes requires technical expertise, substantial capital investment, power availability and customer approvals. The industry's supply cannot necessarily respond quickly when prices rise, especially where production capacity has been shut down for an extended period.

Between 2012 and 2016, weak conditions forced several producers to close plants or exit the business. The industry lost capacity, but the consequences were not immediately visible because demand and pricing remained weak. HEG and Graphite India continued operating through the downturn, preserving their manufacturing capabilities, customer relationships and infrastructure while weaker competitors withdrew.

Then, in 2017, supply conditions changed. China's actions against polluting steelmaking capacity affected the supply-demand balance for electrodes and related inputs, including needle coke. As conditions tightened, the survivors benefited from a sharp increase in realisations.

HEG's revenue increased from approximately ₹860 crore in FY17 to ₹6,593 crore in FY19, while its operating margin reached around 71% in FY19, according to the presentation. These extraordinary results were not simply the result of a smooth increase in end-market demand. They reflected a combination of supply constraints, higher prices and retained capacity among companies that had survived the preceding downturn.

But the feast was cyclical. As idle capacity returned and new supply emerged, pricing weakened again. HEG's reported operating margin fell sharply in the subsequent period.

The lesson is not to avoid cyclical businesses. It is to distinguish between a temporary increase in profitability and a structural improvement in the industry's economics.

A cyclical feast can produce exceptional returns, but only for investors who recognise that the feast has a life cycle of its own. The same industry that rewards survivors during a supply shortage can punish them when excess capacity returns.

The presentation identifies graphite electrodes as a possible new up-cycle in 2026, citing capacity reductions, financial stress at GrafTech and signs of price increases. But it also identifies global overcapacity as a continuing risk. The next feast should therefore be treated as a developing thesis, not an established outcome. Confirmation requires sustained pricing, tighter supply and evidence that higher realisations can translate into improved profitability.

Solar Modules: The Famine May Still Be Under Way

The solar manufacturing industry illustrates the other side of the framework: sometimes the opportunity is not yet in the feast, but in identifying which businesses are most likely to survive the famine.

India's solar module manufacturing capacity has expanded rapidly. The presentation estimates module capacity at approximately 233 GW in mid-2026, compared with around 50 GW of installations expected during the year. It also estimates module-factory utilisation at roughly 35–40%, pointing to a substantial mismatch between manufacturing capacity and near-term demand.

When too many producers can manufacture a broadly comparable product, the industry faces pressure on pricing and utilisation. Plants built during the expansion phase struggle to generate adequate returns, while companies with high fixed costs and limited financial flexibility face mounting pressure.

Yet not all capacity is equally competitive.

The manufacturing chain extends from modules to solar cells, wafers, ingots and polysilicon. Each upstream step requires different capabilities, investment and process control. The presentation estimates that India had approximately 35 GW of cell capacity and only around 2 GW of ingot-wafer capacity at mid-2026. It also highlights the growing relevance of domestic-cell requirements for government-linked projects under the ALMM framework.

This creates a distinction between pure-play module assemblers and companies investing in deeper backward integration. An assembler that depends on external suppliers for cells may be exposed to input availability, cost pressure and eligibility restrictions. A more integrated producer may have greater control over its supply chain and a better chance of remaining competitive.

But backward integration alone does not guarantee survival. A company can build too much capacity, invest at the wrong point in the cycle or face changing technology and policy requirements. Nor does excess module capacity automatically imply that the whole solar manufacturing industry will soon experience a feast. The presentation itself flags the risk that overcapacity may shift upstream as more cell manufacturing capacity comes on stream.

The investment question is therefore not simply which solar company has the largest announced capacity. It is which company can remain economically viable while less competitive capacity exits—and whether that capacity will actually leave the market for long enough to improve industry pricing.

Until closures, utilisation and pricing provide stronger evidence, the solar-module example remains a famine and survivor-selection story rather than a confirmed feast.

Structural Feast vs Cyclical Feast

Not every industry recovery lasts the same amount of time. The critical distinction is whether the capacity that exits can return easily.

A structural feast occurs when bankruptcies, plant closures, licence losses or consolidation permanently change the industry's competitive landscape. Replacing the lost supply requires years of investment, regulatory approvals, specialised expertise or access to scarce resources. Telecom illustrates this possibility because establishing a national network requires spectrum, substantial capital and a long period of investment before an entrant can compete at scale.

A cyclical feast, on the other hand, occurs when production facilities are idled rather than permanently removed. If prices recover, those facilities can restart within months or a few years. Graphite electrodes have exhibited this pattern: supply exits contributed to an extraordinary recovery, but capacity later returned and prices weakened.

The distinction determines how investors should think about durability. In a structural feast, a prolonged period of attractive margins may be possible because competitors cannot easily recreate capacity. In a cyclical feast, the investor must consider the point in the cycle, the likelihood of restarts and whether current prices are already signalling that additional supply will return.

The important question is not simply how many competitors have disappeared.

It is how difficult it will be for those competitors—or new entrants—to come back.

How to Recognise a Survivor's Feast Before It Becomes Obvious

The most reliable signals usually emerge from three areas: the financial condition of the weakest competitors, the actual disappearance of capacity and the behaviour of selling prices.

First, examine the weakest producers. Falling interest coverage, persistent cash burn, credit-rating downgrades, defaults and insolvency proceedings can indicate that marginal capacity is under genuine financial stress. But financial distress by itself is not enough. A company may survive through fresh equity, a government rescue or a debt restructuring, allowing its capacity to remain in the market.

Second, distinguish between capacity that is temporarily idle and capacity that has been permanently removed. A factory that stops production because of poor prices can return once conditions improve. A closed plant that has been dismantled, sold for another use or lost its critical employees and customer approvals may be much harder to restart. Rising utilisation among the surviving producers provides further evidence that supply is tightening.

Third, monitor realised prices relative to costs. The early stages of a feast become more credible when the price received per unit begins rising faster than the cost of producing it. In telecom, this may mean ARPU improving after tariff increases. In aviation, it may mean stronger yields as capacity tightens. In manufacturing, it may mean realisations per tonne rising while input costs remain stable or increase more slowly.

The final confirmation comes when pricing improves across the surviving industry, rather than through a single company-specific event. If one company raises prices but competitors immediately undercut it, the underlying competitive structure may not have changed. If the major survivors follow the increases and profitability strengthens, the industry may finally be entering the feast phase.

The stock market can anticipate this transition, but it can also get ahead of the evidence. A falling share price does not prove that a stock is at its bottom, and the bankruptcy of a competitor does not automatically make the survivor an attractive investment. The opportunity is strongest when the change in supply economics is credible, the survivor's balance sheet is strong enough to endure the remaining stress, and the share price has not already discounted a full recovery.

What Can Kill the Feast?

The most dangerous mistake is assuming that once capacity exits, the resulting pricing power will last indefinitely.

Sometimes the weak are kept alive. Government support, debt relief, fresh capital or restructuring can allow an otherwise unviable competitor to continue operating. In such cases, supply does not tighten as much as investors expect.

Sometimes a new entrant restarts the price war. High margins attract capital, and the very profitability that rewards survivors creates an incentive for others to enter. This is particularly relevant in industries where capacity can be built quickly.

Sometimes the old capacity returns. In a cyclical industry, idle plants can restart once selling prices rise above their operating costs. What looked like a structural shortage may turn out to be a temporary imbalance.

Regulation can also cap pricing or delay tariff increases. Finally, the shortage may simply move upstream. The solar-module industry is a useful reminder that an apparent shortage in one part of a value chain does not guarantee attractive economics across the entire chain.

The feast lasts only as long as the forces restricting new supply remain effective.

The Takeaway: Find the Last Strong Player, Not the First Recovery

The Survivor's Feast offers a different way to approach industries going through severe stress. Instead of asking only whether demand will recover, examine whether competition is disappearing and whether the survivors will gain greater control over pricing.

The strongest candidates are not necessarily the companies reporting the highest growth during the downturn. They are the businesses that combine competitive costs or funding advantages with enough financial endurance to withstand prolonged weakness. They operate in industries where capacity exits are meaningful, new supply cannot appear immediately and pricing can recover before substantial new competition arrives.

Bharti Airtel shows how surviving a destructive price war can lead to improved industry economics. IndiGo demonstrates the advantage of a structural cost edge combined with capacity and financial discipline. HEG and Graphite India illustrate how retained capacity can generate extraordinary profits during a supply-driven cycle, but also why cyclical feasts eventually end. India's solar-module industry shows the importance of identifying the survivors while the famine is still under way, without assuming that the eventual feast is guaranteed.

Each case is different, but the underlying question remains the same.

When the industry is at its weakest, which company has the best chance of remaining strong enough to benefit when the economics turn?

That is the essence of the Survivor's Feast. The opportunity is not to predict every turn in demand or to buy a declining industry simply because valuations look cheap. It is to recognise when industry stress is removing supply, strengthening the competitive position of the survivors and creating the conditions for pricing power to return.

Because in some of the most profitable industry recoveries, the decisive change happens before demand accelerates.

The famine removes the weak. The exits change the market. And when pricing returns, the survivor eats first.

🚀 My Content For This Week 🎬 How to Navigate Stock Market Crash​ ​ 📋 Twitter: Vivek Mashrani, CFA @MashraniVivek AI data centres, electrification and renewable energy are creating a structural demand wave for copper. But the bigger opportunity may not be the metal. It may be the companies that help produce it. Consider the numbers: A thread… 12:01 PM • Oct 16, 2026 2 Retweets 28 Likes Read 3 replies ​ 📷 Instagram: Game Of Luck Ya Game Of Skill?​ 🔗 Linkedin: Before investing in a stock, look beyond its price.​

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